Tagged: Wild Card

24: The Final Push

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Twenty-four games remain for both the Red Sox and their chief post-season obstacle, the Texas Rangers. The boys from Dallas are refusing to go away quietly, taking a double-header from the woeful Indians on Tuesday to gain ground on Boston–despite our 10-0 shellacking of the even more woeful O’s.

So, how is the final push stacking up? 
Well, the Red Sox play 62.5% of their remaining games at home–where they’ve posted a .686 winning percentage. The Rangers will toil in Arlington only 50% of the time from here on out–where they have won at a .637 clip.  Away from Fenway Park, the Carmine Hose will play only 9 more games–in a setting where they win at only a .479 pace. Texas will play 12 more outside of the Metroplex–where they are a .493 winning club.
So, let’s do the math on this fairly substantial sample size of games and ignore the speculation that goes with looking at the individual match-ups (which give the Sox an edge).
Based on past performance, the Sox should win 10 of the remaining 15 games at home and 4 of their final 9 road tilts–that’s 14 more wins and a final total of 94 victories. Texas should win 8 more games at home and 6 more on the road–that’s also 14 more wins for a total of 92 wins. 
So, according to our highly complex algorithms (thank God for the Texas Instruments TI-1795SV calculator), the Red Sox will win the Wild Card by the narrow margin of 2 games–about where they are right now. So, cool it. Can the angst. And get ready for the post-season. Uh-huh.